According to the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this anomalous event could materialise in the next few days, although there is still some uncertainty about its evolution and its possible effects in the Mediterranean and in countries such as Spain.

José Miguel Viñas, meteorologist at Meteored, explains that the models began to predict a few days ago a very anomalous situation of rain in the Sahara and that the latest signs "continue to confirm" for the next few days. "There is still a lot of uncertainty, but initially it seems that something anomalous could occur," most likely due to the movement of an unusual wave of torrential rains to the area, due to the entry of tropical air that is much more humid than normal.

This phenomenon could occur within one to two weeks, but the main unknown is how it will interact with the Mediterranean and atmospheric circulation in latitudes north of Africa. Viñas stresses that, although it is likely that the Balearic Islands will be affected, the situation remains uncertain due to the extraordinary nature of the phenomenon. In addition, there is a risk that the warm waters of the Mediterranean will intensify the effects of these anomalous rains.

In the Sahara, if the models are confirmed, amounts of rain greater than those recorded in several years could accumulate in 24 to 48 hours, which could cause sudden flooding in arid and mountainous areas, where vulnerable populations live. However, the models have not yet specified the exact location where these torrential rains will occur.